Unreported COVID-19 Cases May Cause Second Wave Of Pandemic

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Unreported COVID-19 Cases May Cause Second Wave Of Pandemic
Unreported COVID-19 Cases May Cause Second Wave Of Pandemic

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Video: WHY SECOND COVID WAVE IS SO DEVASTATING - COVID19 PANDEMIC 2023, February
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Unreported COVID-19 Cases May Cause Second Wave of Pandemic

Scientists have made such predictions based on a detailed analysis of the spread of coronavirus in Wuhan.

Unreported COVID-19 Cases May Cause Second Wave of Pandemic
Unreported COVID-19 Cases May Cause Second Wave of Pandemic

Photo: Nestor Galina / Flickr

In Wuhan, during the outbreak of COVID-19 from January to March 2020, up to 87% of cases remained undiagnosed. This is evidenced by a new study published in Nature. Its authors believe that it is precisely such cases that can cause the second wave of the pandemic.

Infected people with mild COVID-19 symptoms, without symptoms and before they appear, appear to play a large role in the spread of the disease. It is difficult to detect the virus in them, and they often cannot be isolated.

Chinese scientists analyzed the dynamics of the spread of COVID-19 during the outbreak in Wuhan using 32,582 laboratory-confirmed cases as an example. They took into account the impact on the emergence of new cases of the disease of such key events as the Chinese New Year, centralized quarantine and others.

Scientists found that the virus reproduction index (the number of people infected by one patient) was 3.54 at the beginning of the study period, but decreased to 0.28 by the end. This indicates the high efficiency of the anti-epidemic measures taken.

Based on this data, scientists have developed mathematical models that predict the spread of infection. According to their estimates, in Wuhan in the first three months of 2020, 53-87% of those infected were not diagnosed.

Scientists also predicted when the second wave of infection could begin. According to their models, if the quarantine is completely canceled 14 days after the cessation of the appearance of new cases of the disease, the probability of the epidemic returning is 97%. In this case, a sharp increase in the incidence will begin 34 days after the lifting of restrictive measures. The leading role in the development of the second wave will be played by unaccounted initiates.

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