Prof Paul Vogt: COVID-19 Mortality Is About 20 Times Higher Than From Flu

Prof Paul Vogt: COVID-19 mortality is about 20 times higher than from flu

The famous Swiss heart surgeon, who has worked in Wuhan for many years, analyzes the situation with the coronavirus pandemic in his second manuscript on the pathogen. The author's previous work caused a stir among virus researchers in many countries, posing a host of new questions.

Photo: herzchirurgie-paulvogt.ch

Everything is like in the movie "Contagion"

In his second manuscript, Vogt points out that comparisons of the absolute number of infected and absolute death rates between countries do not reflect a clear picture of the spread of the virus.

“The mortality rate from COVID-19, as we saw with the example of closed populations (cruise ships), is about 20 times higher than the death rate from influenza. Comparison of the absolute number of infected and absolute death rates between countries or cantons is nonsense. It's like saying that there are more cars in the US than in Andorra. For such comparisons to be comparable, mortality rates must be calculated per 100,000 inhabitants, and the number of patients in intensive care units must also be calculated per 100,000 inhabitants, "the professor writes.

In his opinion, it would be more correct to divide the number of deaths today by the number of actually infected people (including unreported cases) 16 days ago - this is how much passes on average between infection and death. Therefore, it is necessary to compare the total number of deaths with the total number of infected 16 days ago.

“This method is called the Kaplan Meier Estimator and is used by all life insurance companies. Why was this method never used during the COVID-19 pandemic? I think because it would indicate a higher mortality rate, which I don't want to focus on,”writes Vogt.

He recalled that between 2001 and 2019, 5,575 people died from serological influenza and / or influenza subtypes in Germany, i.e. an average of 310 people per year with a population of about 82 million inhabitants. In Switzerland, in just 45 days, 1,368 patients have become victims of the COVID-19 pandemic - with a population 10 times smaller than in Germany, and despite quarantine measures. The coronavirus is much worse than normal flu, Vogt is convinced.

The professor harshly criticized the policy of Western countries in the fight against the pandemic, saying that they were not taught anything by the experience of China, South Korea, Taiwan or Singapore, where they managed to do without a national lockdown. Today in these countries, per 100 thousand inhabitants, only a small part of what Europe and the United States are experiencing now. The virus is spreading at a daily rate of 40%, that is, one week of such a delay means 100 times more people infected and died.

“We had two months to study the Wuhan experience,” the professor complains, noting that we all became heroes of the movie “Contagion,” in which politicians say the same thing that we now hear on the screens.

Seasonal Infection or Apocalypse?

In his column, Paul Vogt described five possible scenarios for further development of events.

Scenario one and the most desirable: COVID-19 remains a seasonally recurrent infection with significantly higher mortality rates than influenza.

Scenario two: the virus becomes endemic in the population, but it will be possible to stop localized outbreaks without strict quarantines.

If the third scenario is implemented, COVID-19 will become endemic among the population, but all problems will be solved by vaccination, similar to vaccination against hepatitis B.

There is also the potential for an effective antiviral combination therapy similar to HIV to emerge. While a patient with HIV must be treated for life, coronavirus infection will only require a 10-day "triple therapy", the components of which are already known and are now undergoing clinical trials. In this scenario, the coronavirus will become a disease that can be diagnosed at home using a test similar to a pregnancy test and cured on an outpatient basis within 5-10 days.

At the same time, the professor admits the implementation of the worst scenario, similar to the Apocalypse: the coronavirus behaves seasonally and in the fall overtakes us in a mutated form. Then everything will be like a nightmare.

“If a vaccine or therapy is not developed soon, then with a new outbreak of COVID-19 in the fall of 2020, we will face the same problems as now,” warns Paul Vogt.