Scientists: Quarantine Will Need To Be Periodically Returned Until 2022

Scientists: quarantine will need to be periodically returned until 2022

If a vaccine against the new coronavirus or an effective treatment for COVID-19 does not appear in the near future, social isolation will have to be resorted to more than once, according to a group of scientists from Harvard.

Photo: Emerson Nuñez

A single introduction of isolation mode will not stop the new coronavirus. Repeated quarantine periods will be required until 2022 to prevent overcrowding in hospitals. Scientists at Harvard University believe their findings apply to temperate countries. Their research is published in Science.

Scientists conducted computer simulations that took into account various known data on the spread of the new coronavirus. For this simulation, they assumed that COVID-19 would be a seasonal illness: transmission of the virus would be less active in the summer. But there are still factors that are still unknown, for example, whether persistent immunity remains after an illness.

The researchers believe that periodic re-introduction of periods of social isolation will be required over the next two years. According to their calculations, a one-time quarantine will not be enough, hospitals may become overcrowded again. These findings are based on the throughput of US hospitals.

Determining when re-quarantine measures are required will require massive human testing for coronavirus. The duration and intensity of isolation can be reduced if an effective treatment or vaccine is developed.