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Wuhan COVID-19 deaths were much lower than reported
It is likely that the death rate from COVID-19 in Wuhan, which was the epicenter of the outbreak, was significantly lower than reported. It used to be that the death rate from a new coronavirus infection in this region was one of the highest.
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Deaths from the novel COVID-19 coronavirus infection in Wuhan, which was the epicenter of the outbreak, are likely to have been substantially less than reported. Scientists have published new data in the journal Nature Medicine. It used to be that the mortality rate in this region was one of the highest.
Earlier, the WHO reported that the death rate from the new coronavirus infection is 2%, over time it has increased this estimate to 3.4%. In Wuhan, at the peak of morbidity, mortality was estimated at 2-4%, in the rest of China - 0.7%.
The new estimate is based on data that was available on February 29, when the city reported 48,557 cases of COVID-19 and 2,169 deaths from the infection, according to official figures.
Scientists used the available information on the incidence in Wuhan to estimate how likely people who developed symptoms of the disease to die from COVID-19. For the calculations, they used special modeling methods.
According to new data, the risk of death in this group of patients is 1.4%.
A new study confirms that symptomatic forms of infection develop more often with age. For infected people aged 30-60, the likelihood of symptomatic infection increases by 4% every year.
People over 60 years of age had a 5.1 times higher risk of dying after symptom onset than people aged 30-59. By the age of 30, the risk of death was 40% lower.
The authors stressed that their data also indicates how difficult it is to control the spread of the new coronavirus. “We can expect that at least half of the population will be infected even against the background of aggressive control measures,” the scientists write.